These are the top 5 risks for the world economy that threaten to negatively impact the M&A-market this year.
According to the latest outlook from Eurasia Group, geopolitical risk in 2026 is no longer a background condition but a central force reshaping global economies, capital flows, and M&A activity. Power politics, weakened institutions, and economic fragmentation are converging in ways that directly affect deal certainty, valuation, and execution.
Five risks stand out as particularly consequential for global business and cross-border transactions.
One of the most destabilizing forces is the political transformation underway in the United States. Under President Donald Trump, constraints on executive power are being challenged, institutions are increasingly politicized, and policymaking has become more personal and transactional.
For investors and acquirers, this translates into heightened regulatory unpredictability, politicized antitrust and foreign investment reviews, and growing reliance on political access rather than transparent rules. As the world’s largest economy becomes a source of systemic uncertainty, global markets are forced to price in US domestic instability as a macro risk.
Closely linked is the rise of American-style state capitalism. Government intervention in the US economy is deepening, with selective support for favoured firms and sectors, and punitive treatment for others.
Success in mergers, acquisitions, trade exemptions, and government contracts increasingly depends on alignment with political priorities. This erodes the traditional separation between public policy and private enterprise and creates structural disadvantages for companies operating without political proximity, including many foreign acquirers.
A third major risk comes from escalation between Russia and NATO beyond the Ukrainian battlefield. While the war in Ukraine is likely to continue without a decisive breakthrough, the greater danger lies in intensified hybrid conflict: cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, airspace violations, and election interference targeting NATO members.
For European businesses, this raises the risk of sudden disruptions, security-driven regulation, and higher defense and energy costs, all of which complicate long-term investment planning and cross-border dealmaking.
Europe itself represents another area of vulnerability. Political fragmentation and weak leadership across major European economies are limiting the continent’s ability to respond decisively to economic slowdown, security challenges, and industrial competition from the US and China. With centrist governments under pressure and no clear mandate for reform, Europe risks policy paralysis at a moment when strategic coordination is essential. For the M&A community, this means slower decision-making, regulatory uncertainty, and uneven national responses within the single market.
Finally, technological and industrial power is becoming dangerously concentrated, particularly in the “electric stack” that underpins modern economies: batteries, power electronics, advanced manufacturing, robotics, and AI.
China’s dominance across these critical technologies is becoming increasingly visible, while Western economies struggle to keep pace. Control over these systems is no longer just an industrial advantage but a geopolitical lever, influencing trade policy, national security reviews, and supply-chain resilience—key considerations in any strategic acquisition.
Bottom line: 2026 is shaping up to be a year in which geopolitics directly drives economic outcomes. For Belgian and European M&A professionals, success will depend not only on financial and strategic logic, but on deep political awareness, scenario planning, and the ability to navigate an increasingly fragmented global order.
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