A small economy that ranks ninth in European deal volume may be the clearest window yet into where the continent's transport sector is heading — and why the window for strategic positioning is narrowing.
By Indra Vonck | Partner, BDO Maritime Transport & Logistics
When analysts discuss European transport and logistics M&A, the conversation typically begins and ends with the UK, Germany, and France, markets where deal volumes are high and headline transactions make the trade press. Yet over the past twelve months, something instructive has been happening in this small, strategically positioned economy.
For a country of eleven million people and an economy roughly half the size of the Netherlands, the 9th place in dealcount ranking is significant. Belgium sits at the intersection of Western Europe's logistics corridors, home to the Port of Antwerp-Bruges & North Sea Ports, and Liege Airport, the region's fifth-busiest cargo airport.
In an era of reshoring, supply chain reconfiguration, and heightened strategic competition, these critical infrastructure nodes attract capital.
The European backdrop: consolidation under pressure
To understand the Belgian story, one must first understand the structural forces bearing down on the European transport sector as a whole. GDP growth across the eurozone is projected to remain moderate at around 1–1.5 percent annually. This provides a stable, but low-growth backdrop that limits volume-driven upside.
Global trade intensity, which rose sharply through the globalisation boom of the 2000s and 2010s, has plateaued. The era of 'slowbalization' is real, and for transport operators whose business models were built on ever-expanding trade flows, it represents a fundamental shift in the growth calculus.
Add to this persistent labour scarcity, elevated energy and financing costs, geopolitical disruption – from Red Sea route diversions to renewed trade policy uncertainty – and the picture is of an industry where organic growth alone can no longer guarantee competitiveness. In this environment,
M&A is becoming a strategic necessity: a way to build the scale, network density, and capability breadth required to operate profitably when margins are thin and disruption is frequent.
Two deal archetypes — and what they signal
Looking at Belgium's twelve transactions, two distinct archetypes emerge. The first archetype is domestic horizontal roll-up. Seven out of twelve Belgian deals involved Belgian acquirers buying Belgian targets.
They reflect a deliberate strategy of building scale and geographic density in a market where cost pressure makes sub-critical operations increasingly vulnerable. The logic is consistent: acquire route networks, customer relationships, and operational capacity faster than organic growth would allow, while rationalising fixed costs across a larger base.
We see this pattern repeated across Europe, the mid-market trucking and contract logistics segment is experiencing a wave of fragmentation-to-consolidation dynamics. Family-owned businesses that built profitable regional operations in the growth years are now confronting a different reality: driver shortages, fleet electrification investment requirements, digital platform expectations from large shippers, and the awareness that a larger neighbor is already executing a buy-and-build strategy in their own backyard.
For many, the question is no longer whether to engage with a transaction, but when and on whose terms.
The second archetype is international capital entering Belgian logistics infrastructure. Four of the twelve deals involved foreign acquirers. In the case of Belgian air cargo in particular, the thesis is legible: Liege Airport has emerged as one of Europe's most dynamic express and e-commerce freight hubs, with significant capacity and competitive positioning relative to the major legacy hubs. Strategic and sovereign-backed investors seeking European logistics footholds are finding Belgium attractive precisely because of the infrastructure quality and geographic centrality it offers.
The window is narrowing
For owner-managers and boards of transport and logistics companies the Belgian data carries a clear message. The consolidation is fully ongoing but might dry up. Companies that proactively define their role either as acquirer, as target, or as partner, will do so on better terms and with more optionality than those who react to circumstances others have created.
That requires rigorous self-assessment: of competitive positioning within consolidating networks, of what capabilities an acquirer would prize, and of the financial and governance readiness to execute a transaction process on acceptable timelines.
What makes Belgium a useful bellwether is precisely its compactness and central position in the European market. In a small market, the dynamics play out in visible, legible form: a handful of roll-up acquirers become identifiable, the international buyers stand out, the infrastructure assets are discrete and traceable.
The same forces (cost pressure, international capital, fragmentation-to-consolidation dynamics, labour scarcity, infrastructure re-sovereignty) are at work across France, Germany, Italy, and the Nordics. They are just harder to read through the noise of larger, more fragmented deal markets.
For dealmakers, the implication is simple: do not wait for the macro environment to stabilise before beginning the strategic dialogue. The companies that will be best positioned in European T&L in 2028 are making their decisions now.
Data note: All transaction data sourced from S&P Capital IQ, European Transportation & Logistics sector, announced and completed M&A transactions, March 2025 – March 2026. Deal count includes acquisitions of whole companies and minority stakes. Capital markets, debt, and funding rounds are excluded. Transaction values are disclosed where publicly available; the majority of mid-market transactions carry undisclosed pricing. Analysis and interpretation by BDO Maritime Transport & Logistics.
